2025-09-19 TACO Pressure Index Update: Low at 11.38

This custom framework combines equities, front-end rates, inflation expectations, and volatility into one daily score. On 2025-09-19, the score printed 11.38/100 in the low regime, with inflation expectations and front-end rate pressure doing most of the work. Equities also provided visible relief through a positive 5-session move.

Composite score11.38
RegimeLOW
Published2025-09-19

Today’s retreat-pressure snapshot for 2025-09-19: the TACO Pressure Index closed at 11.38/100, signaling a low pressure regime as inflation expectations and front-end rate pressure shaped the daily read. A positive 5-session S&P move also added equity relief. Explore the score history, daily post, and the four-factor dashboard.

Pressure history

Composite score history

Trailing 10 sessions through 2025-09-19

Latest component scores

Bar chart of the latest component scores

Today’s component breakdown

Inflation expectations pressure

27.80/100

2.43% level, +1.00 bp vs 5 sessions 60% level + 40% change

Latest: 2.43 on 2025-09-19

Inflation pressure reflects both the breakeven level and any fresh 5-session rise.

2Y Treasury rate pressure

16.80/100

3.57% level, +1.00 bp vs 5 sessions 60% level + 40% change

Latest: 3.57 on 2025-09-19

Rates pressure reflects both the current 2Y level and any fresh 5-session rise.

VIX volatility pressure

13.09/100

15.45 index level

Latest: 15.45 on 2025-09-19

Higher implied volatility usually means greater market stress.

S&P 500 equity signal

-12.16/100

+1.22% vs 5 sessions | pressure 0.00 | relief 24.32 signed 5-session move

Latest: 6,664.36 on 2025-09-19

A 5-session drawdown adds pressure. A 5-session rally adds relief and can partially offset the composite score.

Method in one paragraph

The TACO Pressure Index converts four live market inputs into comparable component scores and combines them into one composite reading. The equity leg is symmetric: 5-session drawdowns add pressure, while 5-session rallies add relief and can partially offset the total score. Rates, inflation, and volatility still combine a level component with a 5-session change component before the final result is grouped into LOW, ELEVATED, HIGH, and EXTREME regimes.