2025-09-25 TACO Pressure Index Update: Low at 20.00

The index is designed to approximate how market stress can build pressure for a softer policy posture. On 2025-09-25, the score printed 20.00/100 in the low regime, with front-end rate pressure and inflation expectations doing most of the work.

Composite score20.00
RegimeLOW
Published2025-09-25

New daily signal for 2025-09-25: the TACO Pressure Index closed at 20.00/100, signaling a low pressure regime as front-end rate pressure and inflation expectations shaped the daily read. See the chart pack, score regime, and what drove the latest reading.

Pressure history

Composite score history

Trailing 14 sessions through 2025-09-25

Latest component scores

Bar chart of the latest component scores

Today’s component breakdown

2Y Treasury rate pressure

28.27/100

3.64% level, +7.00 bp vs 5 sessions 60% level + 40% change

Latest: 3.64 on 2025-09-25

Rates pressure reflects both the current 2Y level and any fresh 5-session rise.

Inflation expectations pressure

25.20/100

2.42% level, -2.00 bp vs 5 sessions 60% level + 40% change

Latest: 2.42 on 2025-09-25

Inflation pressure reflects both the breakeven level and any fresh 5-session rise.

VIX volatility pressure

18.33/100

16.74 index level

Latest: 16.74 on 2025-09-25

Higher implied volatility usually means greater market stress.

S&P 500 equity signal

8.21/100

-0.41% vs 5 sessions | pressure 8.21 | relief 0.00 signed 5-session move

Latest: 6,604.72 on 2025-09-25

A 5-session drawdown adds pressure. A 5-session rally adds relief and can partially offset the composite score.

Method in one paragraph

The TACO Pressure Index converts four live market inputs into comparable component scores and combines them into one composite reading. The equity leg is symmetric: 5-session drawdowns add pressure, while 5-session rallies add relief and can partially offset the total score. Rates, inflation, and volatility still combine a level component with a 5-session change component before the final result is grouped into LOW, ELEVATED, HIGH, and EXTREME regimes.