2026-01-21 TACO Pressure Index Update: Elevated at 26.52

It is not a forecast of policy decisions; it is a structured way to monitor pressure building across markets. On 2026-01-21, the score printed 26.52/100 in the elevated regime, with inflation expectations and front-end rate pressure doing most of the work.

Composite score26.52
RegimeELEVATED
Published2026-01-21

Today’s retreat-pressure snapshot for 2026-01-21: the TACO Pressure Index closed at 26.52/100, signaling a elevated pressure regime as inflation expectations and front-end rate pressure shaped the daily read. Includes charts, a component breakdown, and a narrative summary.

Pressure history

Composite score history

Trailing 90 sessions through 2026-01-21

Latest component scores

Bar chart of the latest component scores

Today’s component breakdown

Inflation expectations pressure

35.20/100

2.42% level, +5.00 bp vs 5 sessions 60% level + 40% change

Latest: 2.42 on 2026-01-21

Inflation pressure reflects both the breakeven level and any fresh 5-session rise.

2Y Treasury rate pressure

27.20/100

3.60% level, +7.00 bp vs 5 sessions 60% level + 40% change

Latest: 3.60 on 2026-01-21

Rates pressure reflects both the current 2Y level and any fresh 5-session rise.

S&P 500 equity signal

25.31/100

-1.27% vs 5 sessions | pressure 25.31 | relief 0.00 signed 5-session move

Latest: 6,875.62 on 2026-01-21

A 5-session drawdown adds pressure. A 5-session rally adds relief and can partially offset the composite score.

VIX volatility pressure

18.36/100

16.9 index level

Latest: 16.90 on 2026-01-21

Higher implied volatility usually means greater market stress.

Method in one paragraph

The TACO Pressure Index converts four live market inputs into comparable component scores and combines them into one composite reading. The equity leg is symmetric: 5-session drawdowns add pressure, while 5-session rallies add relief and can partially offset the total score. Rates, inflation, and volatility still combine a level component with a 5-session change component before the final result is grouped into LOW, ELEVATED, HIGH, and EXTREME regimes.